China & World Economy / 1–23, Vol. 26, No. 4, 2018

Are China’s Exports Crowding Out or Being Crowded Out?
Evidence from Japan’s Imports
Yan Liu, Xunpeng Shi, James Laurenceson

Abstract

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowded out those from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9-digit product-level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding-out and crowded-out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding-out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China’s own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China’s export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded-out effect could achieve win–win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value-added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.

Key words: constant market share analysis (CMS), crowded out, crowding out, industrial relocation
JEL codes: F14, N75, P33