China Daily 02/26/2019

Big picture may be key to progress at meeting
Zou Zhibo

The second meeting between the leaders of the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is scheduled to be held in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi on Wednesday and Thursday. With the first summit in Singapore still fresh in their memory, many people may be wondering why the second one is being held so soon afterward, as well as what could be expected of it and what influence it will exert on the eventual denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

On June 12 last year, US President Donald Trump and DPRK top leader Kim Jong-un held a historic summit in Singapore and issued a joint statement, pledging to build a new US-DPRK relationship and a long-term mechanism to realize peace and denuclearization on the peninsula.

Working-level negotiations were subsequently conducted at the instructions of the two leaders to implement the achievements of the first summit. Top US diplomats met with their DPRK counterparts several times, but without substantial progress until now, due to huge divergences on details and the mode of denuclearization.

In fact, the DPRK's substantial denuclearization actions were all taken before the first US-DPRK summit. Those included renouncing nuclear tests and the test-firing of intercontinental ballistic missiles, dismantling the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, and abandoning a missile engine testing ground and launching stand at the Sohae satellite and missile launching station.

However, due to unsuccessful working-level meetings, the DPRK did not take further denuclearization actions after the first summit, which fell far short of Trump's and Kim Jong-un's expectations.

What is worse, tensions rose between the US and DPRK after the first summit over issues such as military exercises, sanctions and inter-Korean relations. As stated in the January 2019 Missile Defense Review issued by the Pentagon, the DPRK "continues to pose an extraordinary threat", which means that no progress has been secured either in denuclearization or US-DPRK relations.

In such a context, the goal of the second summit is to push forward the denuclearization process from a bigger picture.

Meanwhile, the two leaders will promote denuclearization based on political considerations.

If Trump is going to seek re-election next year, denuclearization will be one of his major political and diplomatic assets.

Since Kim has decided on a major national policy readjustment and is now focusing on economic development, he needs relaxed international sanctions, a loosened blockade and improved relations with the US, which are all to some extent dependent on tangible progress on denuclearization. Therefore, political motivations are a major driver for the second summit.

Judging from the roots of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue and related disarmament law, two phases of denuclearization on the peninsula are expected.

The first phase will cover the discontinuance of nuclear and missile weapons development across the board - that is, halting the improvement in quality and increase in quantity of nuclear and missile weapons (if the DPRK agrees to include ballistic missiles in the denuclearization basket).

The second phase will involve the reduction and destruction of nuclear warheads and transport vehicles in order to achieve the goal of denuclearization.

With these caveats, denuclearization on the peninsula will be a long process. The most realistic goal for the time being is to complete the tasks of the first phase.

Therefore, the second US-DPRK summit is expected to make specific arrangements for discontinuing nuclear and missile tests, and the declaration of production facilities of uranium, plutonium, warheads and missiles by the DPRK.