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Table of Contents
The Journal of World Economy 2024, No.2
2024-07-01 15:15:00
The Journal of World Economy 2024, No.2

Domestic and International Economic Cycles, Industrial Structure and Changes in the Aggregate Share of Labour Income
Tian Ye, Ni Hongfu, Xia Jiechang
  Abstract
  The evolution of domestic and international economic cycles is accompanied by changes in industrial structure, which in turn affects the aggregate share of labour income. This paper constructed a decomposition framework for domestic and international economic cycles and its factor structure of macro-labour income share changes, and the global input-output table from 1997 to 2020 is used for calculation and analysis. The findings suggest that: (1) The intra-industry effect is the dominant factor producing changes in China's macro-labour income share at each stage, the industrial structure effect is also significant when China's industrial structure undergoes major changes. (2) The contribution of the domestic economic cycle and that of the international economic cycle to changes in the macro-labour income share at each stage are opposite. The domestic economic cycle plays a dominant role in contributing to the industrial structure effects, the decline in the degree of domestic economic circulation will reduce the macro-labour income share. In other word, the greater the degree of international economic cycle (external circulation), the macro-labour income share is lower. (3) The expansion of domestic demand scale in the domestic economic cycle makes a significant positive contribution at all stages. The gradual increase in the proportion of service inputs in the domestic production network is also conducive to increasing China's macro-labour income share. The expansion of final demand exports and the structural effects of international production networks on the international economic cycle further exhibit considerable positive effects at different stages.
  Key words
  macro-labour income share / industrial structure / domestic and international economic cycles / input-output model

RMB Cross-Border Settlement Reform and Corporate Exports
Sun Puyang, Xu Qian, Yu Chunhai
  Abstract
  Based on the “List of Pilot Exporting Enterprises for Cross-border Trade RMB Settlement” launched by China in 2009, this paper examines the micro-level impact of the pilot local currency settlement policy on the export of Chinese enterprises and conducts an in-depth study of the impact mechanisms of variable and fixed exchange costs. The study finds that, first, the use implementation of local currency settlement can significantly promote corporate exports. Second, corporate exports, which are more sensitive to exchange costs, are more strongly influenced by the settlement reform. As exports to destination countries sign local currency swap agreements with China, variable exchange costs decline, significantly amplifying the impact the settlement reform has on them. On the other hand, non-intermediaries are more responsive to fixed exchange costs, making the reform more significant for their exports. Finally, after using the stacked DID and instrumental variables techniques to eliminate the influence of the border trade settlement reform advancement and pilot randomness, the fundamental conclusion remains valid. Overall, this paper employs the settlement reform to demonstrate the positive effect of cross-border trade local currency settlement on China's exports from a business perspective, providing micro-evidence to further improve trade facilitation.
  Key words
  settlement method / exchange costs / corporate exports / border trade

External Demand and Upstream Supply Chain Adjustment: Supply Stabilisation or Chain Expansion and Strengthening
Peng Shuijun, Li Zhixu
  Abstract
  The world is experiencing unprecedented transformation, requiring the upstream supply chain to not only be highly specialised and efficient, but also reliable and controllable. Drawing on the upstream and downstream corporate relationships inherent in the global value chain (GVC), this paper investigates the effect of downstream external demand expansion on the upstream supply chain layout of Chinese firms and its formation mechanism. Research reveals that firms integrated into the GVC build more stable upstream supply chains to ensure stable supply in the face of expanding downstream external demand. Meanwhile, firms' incentive to innovate increases as the market expands, and the range of imported intermediate goods is enlarged to alleviate the technical and cost constraints that hinder innovation. Additional study demonstrates that the higher the firm's position in the GVC, the greater the incentive to expand and strengthen the chain, while the lower the firm's position in the GVC, the stronger the incentive to stabilise the chain. Finally, the study offers policy suggestions aimed at enhancing openness, stabilising the upstream supply chain, upgrading the GVC and optimising the domestic value chain (DVC).
  Key words
  external demand / upstream supply chain / stabilising the chain / chain expansion and strengthening

Asset Bubbles and Policy Responses: A Literature Review
Lu Yi, Dong Feng, Wang Siqing, Sun Haoning
  Abstract
  Since the 2008 global financial crisis, asset bubbles have garnered significant attention from academic researchers and policymakers. Not only are they an academic frontier in macro-finance, but they also constitute a critical challenge for China's economic development. This paper conducts an extensive review of the latest literature on asset bubbles, summarising the theoretical frameworks and elucidating their origins and macroeconomic implications. We also investigate practical problems and policy implementation issues, offering a comprehensive comparison of the identification of asset bubbles, as well as the genesis and characteristics of three major asset bubbles: housing, equity, and bond bubbles. Moreover, we explore the interplay between asset bubbles, macroeconomic fluctuations, economic growth, and financial risk, discussing corresponding policy responses.
  Key words
  asset bubbles / macroeconomic fluctuations / economic growth / financial risk / policy responses

Transfer Payments and Disappearing Soft Budget Constraints: Evidence from the Great Flood of 1998
He Daixin, Liu Shiyang
  Abstract
  Quantitative analysis of the central-local fiscal relationship is important for understanding the characteristics of China's intergovernmental behavior. Do transfers, which are key components of the central-local fiscal relationship, play a role in stabilizing local fiscal operations? This paper utilizes the historical event of the 1998 torrential flood to observe the response of county-level governments to the increase in transfer payments from higher levels. It is found that county-level governments in the flood-affected areas received a substantial increase in the centralized special subsidies compared to those in the non-affected areas. After receiving the subsidies, local governments carried out limited fiscal expansion, and the increase in expenditure was mainly used for flood relief. In addition, this paper finds that local governments paid more attention to investing in relief and compassionate care, while the central government took more responsibility for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction; the central government's special subsidies flowed more to the county-level districts under the affected cities. The conclusion suggests that in the emergency management, adequate and timely central transfer payments make a safeguarding and supporting contribution to local governments in disaster relief.
  Key words
  special subsidies / transfer payments / soft budget constraints / emergency management

Employment Effects and Spatial Spillover of New Infrastructure Special Bonds
Liu Nannan, Zeng Yu
  Abstract
  Based on prefecture-level city panel data from 2005 to 2021, this article applies a differences-in-differences identification strategy and a differences-in-differences spatial Durbin model. It explores the employment effects of new infrastructure special bonds and spatial spillover. The study reveals the following findings: (1) New infrastructure special bonds generate multiplier effects on employment, not only increasing the employment level in the specified investment sectors by 3.49%, but also stimulating regional employment in non-specified investment sectors by 8.34% through diffusion effects. (2) Unlike traditional infrastructure special bonds, new infrastructure special bonds can generate significant industry and job substitution effects, helping to optimize the employment structure of the labor market. (3) The employment structure effects of new infrastructure special bonds exhibit positive spillover, as indicated by the inflow of high-skilled labor and the outflow of low-skilled labor in the local area. This article provides empirical evidence and reference suggestions for the transformation of the labor market pattern and the reduction of frictional unemployment under the impact of new infrastructure special bonds.
  Key words
  new infrastructure special bonds / employment effects / spatial spillover

Data Factors and Pricing Chengtou Bonds: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Open Government Data
Ouyang Yiling, Wang Yujing, Li Ping, Gao Haoyu
  Abstract
  This paper undertakes the establishment of open government data platform websites across diverse prefecture-level cities as a quasi-natural experiment to assess the influence of open government data on the spread of chengtou bonds with a difference-in-differences model examining the issuance information of chengtou bonds from 2003 to 2019. The paper finds that access to government data significantly reduces the issuance spreads of local chengtou bonds by 11.5 basis points on average. The mechanism analysis reveals that data openness reduces investors' information cost, lowering the information premium; meanwhile, big data facilitate external monitoring and enhance business decision-making, lowering the credit risk of local government financing vehicles. A closer analysis suggests that data on public services, social livelihoods, and the economy manifest a strong effect on narrowing spreads. The conclusion of the study indicates that government initiatives to improve government data access have a significantly positive impact on risk management in the financial market.
  Key words
  open government data / data factors / chengtou bonds / credit spreads

Enterprise Digitalization, Network Status and Pollution Reduction
Han Feng, Huang Min, Jiang Zhuqing
  Abstract
  This research paper employs the concurrent directorship and green patent citation data of listed enterprises to establish an enterprise relationship network index. It then investigates the impact of enterprise digitalization and its network status on pollution reduction, utilizing panel data from listed manufacturing enterprises. The findings suggest that the implementation of enterprise digitalization can significantly reduce the pollutant emission levels of enterprises, and they indicate that the more advantageous an enterprise network location is, the more conducive it is to facilitating the pollution-reducing effects of digital transformation. Compared to social relationship networks, green technology linkage networks contribute more significantly to enterprise digital transformation. Additional research reveals that the pollution-reducing effect of enterprise digitalization is primarily achieved through green technology innovation, scale economy and factor allocation effects, and its influence is significantly enhanced with the implementation of national big data comprehensive pilot zones and the “Broadband China” strategy. This paper not only examines the impact mechanism of digital transformation on pollution reduction from an enterprise relationship network perspective, but also offers valuable insights for enterprises seeking to embrace green transformation and development in the digital economy.
  Key words
  enterprise digital transformation / social relationship networks / green technology linkage networks / pollution reduction