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Reform directions for China’s socialist market economy: a macroeconomic perspective
2016-02-24 10:47:00

GDP | Global Development Perspective

Working Paper No. 16.002
February 22 2016

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Reform directions for China’s socialist market economy: a macroeconomic perspective 

Xu Qiyuan

Introduction

China enjoyed very substantial growth from 2000 until the global financial crisis hit in 2009 (see Figure 4.1). In March 2012, for the first time, the Central Government Work Report revised down the GDP growth rate target from 8 per cent to 7.5 per cent. Again in March 2015, the Central Government Work Report revised the growth target to 7 per cent. China’s economy has entered into the period of ‘New Normal’. The New Normal is a government narrative about the era of double-digit expansion being over. The potential for infrastructure investment has contracted, returns on assets have fallen, export growth is slowing and overcapacity has soared. The old engines of growth, investment and export, are spluttering. Furthermore, China has consecutively suffered from the global slowdown that followed the U.S. financial crisis, the debt crisis in Europe, and then the exit strategies of the Federal Reserve. It is now a factory too big for the world market.
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Three aspects to boost domestic demand
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From investment-driven to consumption-driven
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Improving the social welfare system
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Reshaping the industry structure
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From demographic dividend to human capital bonus
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A liberalized financial system to support the ‘real economy’: the ‘middle way’ to reform?
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From technological imitation to innovation
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Conclusion: from strong growth to sustainable development
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