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Global Macroeconomy
HE Xinhua
2012-07-22 11:26:00


  HE Xinhua

  Senior Fellow. Professor of Graduate School of CASS
  Tel:00 86 10 85195775, Fax: 00 86 10 65126105
  Email: hexh@cass.org.cn
  Received State Council Special Subsidy in 2009
  http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=856569
  http://logec.repec.org/RAS/phe329.htm


 

Research Field:
Macro-econometric Model, World Economic Statistics

Education:
1986: M.S., Bio-statistics, UCLA, USA
1982: B.S., Computer Science, Shandong Engineering University, PRC

Professional Experience:
2011-present: Senior Fellow, Department of Global Macroeconomic Analysis, Institute of World Economics and Politics(IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), PRC
2008-2011: Senior Fellow, Director of Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, PRC
2005 – 2008: Senior Fellow, Director of Department of Statistics, IWEP, CASS, PRC
2001 - 2005: Senior Research Fellow, Director of Department of Statistics, IWEP, CASS, PRC
1998 - 2001: Senior Research Fellow, IWEP, CASS, PRC
1997 -1998: Senior Engineer, Department of Planning and Statistics, Shandong Provincial Family Planning Commission, PRC
1989 -1997: Junior Engineer, Department of Planning and Statistics, Shandong Provincial Family Planning Commission, PRC
1982 -1989: Department of Planning and Statistics, Shandong Provincial Family Planning Commission, PRC
July-Aug. 2012: Visiting Scholar, BOFIT, Bank of Finland
Nov. – Dec. 2007: Visiting Scholar, CNRS, France
Nov. - Dec. 2006: Visiting Scholar, Hong Kong Monetary Research Institute
Oct. 2003 - Oct. 2004: Private consultant of PRC macro-econometric modeling at Asian Development Bank
Jan. - May, 2003: Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Queen Mary, University of London, UK
Mar. - Apr., 1992: Visiting Scholar, State Statistics Bureau, Sweden
Aug. - Oct., 1989: Visiting Scholar, ESCAP, Bangkok, Thailand
Jan. 1985- Jun.1986: Visiting Scholar & MS candidate, UCLA, USA

Academic Records:
Papers:
He, Xinhua, “The intermediation role of Hong Kong in China’s trade development,” forthcoming in Sarah Y. Tong Eds. Globalization, Development, and Security in Asia, World Scientific Publishing.
Qin, Duo and Xinhua He, “Modelling the Impact of Aggregate Financial Shocks External to the Chinese Economy,” BOFIT Discussion Papers 25, 2012.
He, Xinhua, Duo Qin and Yimeng Liu, “Exchange rate misalignments: A comparison of China today against recent historical experiences of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan,” Journal of Chinese Economics and Business Studies, 10(3)247-266, 2012. Department of Economics, Queen Mary, University of London, Working paper No.667, July 2010, http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/wp/WP667.HTM, BOFIT Discussion Paper 22/2011 http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Pages/dp2211.aspx,http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1914299.
Qin, Duo and Xinhua He, New Evidence of the Globalization Effect on Inflation in Developed Countries in the Great Moderation Era, Journal of Financial Research, Oct. 2011.  Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP201101, Sep. 2011. http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese).
Qin, Duo and Xinhua He, Globalisation Effect on Inflation in the Great Moderation Era: New Evidence from G10 Countries (August 25, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1917100
also http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32994/
Qin, Duo and Xinhua He, Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation? Economics Discussion Papers, No 2010-8. Feb. 2010, http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2010-8, Department of Economics, Queen Mary, University of London, Working paper No.660, Feb. 2010, also http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/wp/WP660.HTM, The World Economy, 34, 8, 1288-1307, 2011.
He, Xinhua, Understanding the Key Concepts in CPI Disputes, Macroeconomics, Mar. 2011, pp3-13. Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP201003, Dec. 2010.  http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Unemployment Statistics Internationally Not Comparable, in Xinhua He and Shiguo Liu ed., Empirical Study of World Economy, pp266-281, Social Sciences Academic Press (China), Jan. 2011. (in Chinese).
He, Xinhua, Noteworthy Discrepancies in China’s GDP Accounting, China & World Economy, 2010, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp88-102.
Qin, Duo and Xinhua He, Measuring on Misalignment of RMB Exchange Rate, The Journal of World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 7, 2010. Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP201001, Feb. 2010, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Duo Qin and Yimeng Liu, A Comparative Study of Exchange Rate Misalignments: Japanese Yen, Deutsche mark, Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and Chinese Renminbi, in Xinhua He and Shiguo Liu ed., Empirical Study of World Economy, pp266-281, Social Sciences Academic Press (China), Jan. 2011. Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP201002, June 2010, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, China Needs to Pay Attention to Possible Unexpectedly High Inflation, in Xinhua He and Shiguo Liu ed., Empirical Study of World Economy, pp45-57, China Financial and Economic Publishing House, Mar. 2010. (in Chinese).
He, Xinhua, Testing the Effectiveness of Raising Tax Refund Rate on Export in China Lately, in Xinhua He and Shiguo Liu ed., Empirical Study of World Economy, pp58-74, China Financial and Economic Publishing House, Mar. 2010. Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP200903, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Some Discrepancies in China’s National Accounts, in Xinhua He and Shiguo Liu ed., Empirical Study of World Economy, pp173-185, China Financial and Economic Publishing House, Mar. 2010. (in Chinese).
Qin, Duo and Xinhua He, Measuring RMB Misalignment – Definition, Methodology, and Empirical Analysis, Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP201001, Feb. 2010, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, The Effectiveness of China’s Macroeconomic Policy – Some Scenario Analysis Based on MCM_QEM, Empirical Study of World Economy, Apr. 2009, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua and Zhan Gao, Testing the Effectiveness of China’s Monetary Policy, Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP2010802, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ World Economic Survey, June 2009. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua and Ning Li, Accessing the Effects of US Economic Crisis on Sino-US Trade – Some Messages from Sino-US Trade Structural Change, Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP200901, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ World Economic Survey, June 2009. (in Chinese)
Qin, Duo, Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducaes, Xinhua He, Rui Liu and Shiguo Liu, Effects of income inequality on China
s economic growthJournal of Policy Modeling2009, vol. 31, issue 1, pages 69-86. Presented at EcoMod2005 International Conference on Policy Modeling, Istanbul, July 2005. Department of Economics, Queen Mary, University of London, Working paper No. 548, http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/wp/WP548.HTM.
He, Xinhua, Chinese Economy Will Keep Growing Fast, International Economic Review, Issue 9-10, 2008, pp34-37. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, A Survey on Applied Macro-econometrics, in Xiangyang Li ed., Frontier Issues in World Economics, pp459-478. Department of Macroeconometric Modeling and Statistics, IWEP, CASS, Working Paper DSWP200701, http://www.stats-iwep.org.cn/ (in Chinese)
Qin, Duo, Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducanes, Xinhua He, Rui Liu, Shiguo Liu, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos and Pilipinas Quising, A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy, Economic Modelling, Vol. 24, Issue 5, September 2007, Pages 814-822.
He, Xinhua, An Evaluation of the Intermediation Role of Hong Kong in Chinese Foreign Trade, HKIMR (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research) Working Paper, WP No.15/2007
http://www.hkimr.org/cms/upload/publication_app/pub_full_0_2_157_HKIMR%20Working%20Paper%20No15_BW.pdf also http://www.eaber.org/intranet/documents/22/1115/ September 2007. The Chinese version published in International Economic Review, Issue 3-4, 2007, Pages54-57.
He, Xinhua and Yongfu Cao, Understanding the High Saving Rate in China, China & World Economy, Vol. 15, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 1-13. http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2007.00049.x.
Qin, Duo, Marie Ann Cagas
Pilipinas F. Quising and Xinhua He, How Much Does Fixed Investment Drive Economic Growth in the PRC?, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 28, Issue 7, October 2006, pp751-774;  Presented at EcoMod2005 International Conference on Policy Modeling, Istanbul, July 2005Department of Economics, Queen Mary, University of London, Working paper No. 545, http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/wp/WP545.HTM
He, Xinhua, The Price Indices in China, The journal of World Economy, pp31-36, Apr. 2006. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, An Econometric Analysis of the Chinese Fertility Declining, Far Eastern Chinese Business Review, pp37-42, Issue 1, 2006, (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua and Yongfu Cao, A Flow of Funds Analysis of the High Chinese Saving Rate, International Economic Review, pp58-61, Issue 6, 2005. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Aggregate Business Investment in China and UK, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 27, Issue 6, 2005, pp733-742. Presented at EcoMod2005 International Conference on Policy Modeling, Istanbul, July 2005.
He, Xinhua, A Preliminary Analysis of the Relationship Between the Price Indices in China, presented at International Conference on Economic Policy Simulation & China's 11th Five-Year Plan, Beijing, April, 2005.
in Chinese
He, Xinhua, The Structure of GDP in China, Far Eastern Chinese Business Review, Issue 4, 2005, pp43-48. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, The Impact of RBM Revaluation on Employment, International Economic Review, Issue 2, 2005, pp23-25. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Raising Interest Rate or Revaluation, which Would Be a Better Choice, in Luolin Wang and Xiangyang Li ed., Analysis and Forecast of the World Economy in 2004-2005, Social Sciences Academic Press (China), 2005, pp269-284. (in Chinese)
Qin, Duo, Pilipinas Quising, Xinhua He and Shiguo Liu: Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 27, Issue 2, March 2005, pp157-175.
He, Xinhua, Revaluation Is Better than Raising Interest Rate, International Trade, Nov. 2004, pp52-55. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua and Duo Qin, Aggregate Investment in China: Some Empirical Evidence, Asian Development Reviews, Vol. 21, No. 1, Sep. 2004, Pages99-117, http://www.adb.org/documents/periodicals/adr/pdf/ADR-Vol21-1-He-Qin.pdf.
He, Xinhua, Haiying Wu, Shiguo Liu and Ling Wang, China_QEM, A Quarterly Macro-econometric Model of China, presented at EcoMod2004 International Conference on Policy Modeling, Paris, July 2004, http://ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document-conference/ecomod2004/252.pdf
He, Xinhua, An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of External Shocks on the Chinese Macroeconomy, in Luolin Wang and Xiangyang Li ed., Analysis and Forecast of the World Economy in 2003-2004, Social Sciences Academic Press (China), 2004, pp251-261. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Haiying Wu and Shiguo Liu, The Impact of Exchange Rate Revaluation on Chinese Economy, The Journal of World Economy, Nov. 2003, pp13-20. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Haiying Wu and Shiguo Liu, Exchange Rate Revaluation Will only Have Short Term Negative Effects on Chinese Economy, International Economic Review, Sep. 2003, pp21-23. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Zhenyu Xiao and Jie Zhan, An Analysis on Causes of Problems Faced by Pension System Reform of Our Country, in Gongcheng Zheng and Yushuo Zheng ed., Labor and Social Security in the Age of Globalization, China Labor and Social Security Publishing House, June. 2002, pp538-564. (in Chinese) Institute of World Economics and Politics Working Paper No.007-2002
He, Xinhua, A Study on Minimization of the Cost of Pension System Reform, The journal of World Economy, Feb. 2001, pp3-13. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua and Ling Wang, Economic Strength Comparison – A Study on the Main Characteristics and Indices of Great Power Economies of Foreign Trade, International Trade, Dec 2000 , pp41-18. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, The New Criterion on Balance of Payment Statistics, Statistical Studies, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 12-13. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Asia Financial Crisis Is Inevitable - A View from the Status of Balance of Payment, The journal of World Economy, Oct 1998, pp25-27. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua and Xiuying Chen, A Simple Analysis on Methods of Prognoses in Economics and an Application , The journal of World Economy, May 1998. (in Chinese)

Books:
He, Xinhua, MCM_QEM: A Quarterly Multi-Country/Regional Macroeconometric Model, China Financial and Economic Publishing House, Nov. 2010. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Haiying Wu, Yongfu Cao and Rui Liu, China_QEM: A Quarterly Macro-econometric Model of China, Social Sciences Academic Press (China), 2005. (in Chinese)
He, Xinhua, Cost-Benefit Analysis, (Textbook for the Graduates at Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), 1999 (in Chinese)

Research Projects:
Jan. 2012 - Dec. 2015, Short-run Forecasts of GDP and CPI in Major Economies of G20, funded by National Natural Science Fundation (project No. 71173235). Project director
2009-2014, Capacity Building of World Economic Statistics, funded by CASS, Project director.
2007, Government Consumption Accounting, funded by CASS, Project director.
2006-2010, Multi-country Macro-econometric Model and Database, funded by CASS, Project director.
2006, The FDI Stock and the Revenues, funded by CASS, Project director.
Jan.-June 2005, The Interaction between China and the World Economy, funded by Chinese Economic Research and Advisory Program, Sub-project director.
Oct. 2003 – Oct. 2004, The PRC model, funded by Asian Development Bank, Advisor.
Jan. 2003 – Dec. 2005, China Macro-econometric Model under the Economic Globalization, funded by National Natural Science Foundation (project No. 70273059). Project director.
2002-2004, An Econometric Analysis of External Shocks on Chinese Economy, funded by CASS. Project director.
2002-2007, Capacity Building of World Economic Statistics, funded by CASS, Project director.
Jan. 2002-July 2004, Evaluation of China’s Population Policy, funded by CASS. Member.
June-Sep. 2000, China's Impact on the World Economy, funded by the Ministry of Finance of China. Project co-director.
June-Sep. 2000, Main Characteristics and Index Analysis of the Dominated Economies on International Trade, funded by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, PRC. Project director.
2000-2001, A Quantitative Analysis on Pension System Reform of China, funded by Ford Foundation. Project director.
1998, Urban Agriculture in Beijing and Metropolitan Area of Developed Countries, funded by Beijing Statistics Bureau, Member.